Climate Change
Climate Diplomacy
Security
Global Issues
Francesca Cameron, New Security Beat

Sources: The New York Times, Vox, The Washington Post.

Video Credit: Wilson Center NOW

On October 13, the United Nations General Assembly appointed Antonio Guterres as the next UN secretary-general. When the former prime minister of Portugal and high commissioner for refugees begins his term in January 2017, he will face a world of increasing climate and security crises. In a Wilson Center NOW interview and op-ed for The Daily Climate, Wilson Fellows Ruth Greenspan Bell and Sherri Goodman express optimism in Guterres’ ability to address these interconnected challenges and provide insight on the role of institutions like the United Nations in fighting climate change.

While the United Nations is not the only leader on climate change, it remains the best hope for global mobilization, as evidenced by the successful adoption of the Paris climate agreement in December 2015. “A Secretary who understands the security implications of a changing climate can lead the way to thread climate and its consequences into everything else the UN does,” write Bell and Goodman, “both to push hard for greenhouse gas reductions and to address the self-described ‘truth’ articulated by President Obama, ‘that many nations have contributed little to climate change but will be the first to feel its most destructive effects.’”

Guterres’ first big challenges are the refugee crisis and water

The next big challenges for Guterres are the refugee crisis and water, which is the “frontline of climate change,” says Goodman. The breakdown in Syria and incredible displacement of people demonstrates how climate change-induced water scarcity can create competition over resources, exacerbate other problems in a society, and leave a void for militant and terrorist groups to emerge.

Bell says that Guterres is well aware of the destabilizing nature of climate change and its ability to exacerbate conflict. While he was the high commissioner for refugees, Guterres spoke to the Security Council about the central role of climate change in future peace and security challenges.

Guterres’ background and advocacy on behalf of climate change and displacement are good signs, but slowing climate change and blunting its impacts will require more than the United Nations. More collaboration between the public and private sectors is key. “It’s not any single government, and it’s not just government alone,” says Goodman.

There is reason to hope that such multilateral collaborations can work. The Paris Agreement was ratified and went into effect in record time, and during the same week as Guterres’ appointment, almost 200 countries agreed to amend the Montreal Protocol to phase out the use of harmful hydrofluorocarbons, which are responsible for about eight percent of climate-changing emissions.

Such agreements are imperative to building trust between key stakeholders and showing that change is possible, says Bell. Perhaps progress does not look like unilateral action and agreement on all issues, but focusing on shared interests, “trying to find avenues and places where you can solve specific problems.”

Adaptation & Resilience
Capacity Building
Climate Change
Finance
Private Sector
Sub-Saharan Africa
Clare Shakya, Guest Writers

Approaches developed in Mali, Senegal, Kenya and Tanzania offer insights for building resilience in areas facing risks of climate change, disasters and conflict.

Maxine Burkett, New Security Beat

Kiribati

The idea that climate change is causing migration and displacement is entering the mainstream, but experts have warned against using the term “climate refugees” to describe what we’re seeing in small islands, coastal regions, and even conflict zones like Syria.

Climate Change
Conflict Transformation
Development
Security
Sub-Saharan Africa
Global Issues
Asia
Austin Miles, Guest Writers

A paper published last week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences tests the hypothesis that climate related natural disasters may be part of the cause of conflict in countries with high ethnic fractionalization.

Austin Miles, New Security Beat

The International Expert Forum (IEF) is a series of seminars meant to facilitate dialogue between experts and policymakers on peace and security. Meeting in Stockholm this past May, the forum explored the connections between environmental issues, peacebuilding, and conflict while considering how environmental governance can aid in peacebuilding. The summary brief produced after the forum provides a useful snapshot of a fast-changing field of study.