An ambitious EU 2030 climate framework could be crucial to unlocking a global climate deal in Paris next year. Yet EU leaders still can't agree the details, with just days to go.
Uncertainty remains because different EU member states want different things from the 2030 framework, which will set the trajectory for EU climate and energy policy for the next 15 years. Some countries want three targets - to cut emissions, increase use of renewable energy and boost take up of energy efficiency. Others want an emissions target only. And a few say they will only accept targets with sweeteners.
So who wants what from the EU 2030 climate and energy framework, and what does that mean for how ambitious it will be?
Emissions target
The EU's 2030 climate and energy policy framework is due to be hammered out in outline by heads of government at the European Council summit next Thursday. A leaked draft of conclusions for the meeting seen by Carbon Brief shows consensus forming around a binding emissions cut of 40 per cent of 1990 levels by 2030. The draft also points to a 27 per cent target for Europe's share of renewable energy and a 30 per cent cut in energy use compared to business as usual.
For the wider world the emissions target is the most important. The EU likes to see itself as a climate leader that is lighting the way to a low carbon future. Indeed, UK climate and energy secretary Ed Davey said this week:
"We need this deal so that so Europe can continue to lead the world to a global climate change deal in Paris next year."
A 40 per cent emissions reduction should be the minimum level of ambition according to 22 out of the EU's 28 member states.
A 40 per cent reduction by 2030 would be a milestone towards the EU's long-term objective of an 80 to 95 per cent cut in emissions by 2050, European Commission president José Manuel Barroso told last month's New York climate summit, saying: "In effect, we are in the process of de-carbonising Europe's economy."
This is the EU pitch to the rest of the world in the run up to Paris: we're doing our bit, now play your part.
But not everyone is convinced that 40 per cent is ambitious. Consultancy Ecofys says it would leave the EU behind the curve against its 2050 goal, meaning accelerated efforts after 2030 would be needed to get back on track.
That's why some like the UK's David Cameron, Germany and Sweden , have been calling for a reduction of "at least" 40 per cent (shaded darker green on the map above). They want to go to the Paris climate talks offering to increase ambition, if other countries play along.
Poland is leading opposition to an ambitious 2030 deal over fears of increases in its energy costs and damage to its domestic coal industry. It was the only member state to explicitly oppose an emissions target during a commission consultation last year.
For the complete article, please see Carbon Brief Blog.
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