Li Lina and Yang Fuqiang

The climate talks in Warsaw last year set two tasks for the next round of negotiations in the city of Lima, Peru, at the end of 2014: reaching agreement on the elements of a post-2020 climate agreement; and determining the technical and legislative information required for what is known as the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), the pledges each country will make towards fighting climate change.

Exactly what INDCs will include is still debated, with some countries proposing mitigation strategies, and others (mainly developing countries) arguing that they should involve information on climate adaptation and financing.

The future direction is very likely to be one of simultaneous progress on both short- and long-term goals. Nations will need to put forward short term INDC goals, for 2025 and 2030, and in particular emission cuts. Long term goals will be a new round of discussions on carbon neutrality, and 100% use of renewable energy and elimination of coal. All the various players – nations, think-tanks, the UN bodies, international groups, NGOs – will, from their own various stances, push towards these goals. Preparation and strategies for these moves will be needed for future negotiations.

Against this background, the world and the key powers will again enter a period of intense diplomatic and political activity during the latter half of 2014. Though the US will be one of the main players, the role of the European Union should not be ignored.

July will see a new round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue. According to the US these talks will, besides promoting cooperation in several fields by the China-US Climate Change Working Group, tackle issues which are more politically sensitive and directly relevant to climate negotiations, such as HFCs, a set of potent greenhouse gases, and INDCs.

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Development
Sustainable Transformation
South America
Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Instituto Igarapé

Linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans across the Latin American landmass has often been presented as one of the holy grails of development for the region. While China’s idea of a ‘Nicaraguan Canal’ has made headlines globally, another major infrastructure project is in the works further south: the Bi-Oceanic Railway. The idea has already spurred transboundary environmental cooperation, but the public is still in the dark.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods
Security
Middle East & North Africa
Wim Zwijnenburg, PAX

Using a progressive environmental security concept can help to tackle a range of environmental issues related to armed conflict, such as deforestation, loss of biodiversity, tensions over natural resources, conflict pollution, and damage to ecosystems. The environment can actually play a role in peacebuilding. This article briefly outlines why such an inclusive and environmental protection approach is needed and how it could be implemented.

Climate Diplomacy
South America
Global Issues
Christian Hübner, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung

Climate action and free trade have been perceived as contrary agendas for a long time. Despite more and more governments seeing tremendous potential for win-win outcomes, aligning trade and climate has become harder. This is due to changes in our current geopolitical landscape, as Christian Hübner explains in light of the upcoming G20 summit.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods
Climate Change
Sub-Saharan Africa
Lily Welborn, ISS Africa

Human activity has caused the temperature of the Earth and its atmosphere to rise by about 1°C above pre-industrial levels, triggering fundamental changes to the planet’s physical and social landscapes. On 8 October an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that temperatures were rising faster than expected, and that 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels could occur as early as 2030.