In his address on this year’s World Cities Day, UN-Secretary General António Guterres recognised that “cities have borne the brunt of the pandemic” and called upon governments to “prepare cities for future disease outbreaks”. Authorities cannot waste this opportunity to build back better by simultaneously addressing the increasing economic hardship for the urban poor and climate change impacts. This will help prevent not only future health risks but also the increased risk of urban violence and insecurity.
Around 90% of all reported COVID-19 infections occur in urban areas. This staggering statistic makes clear that the urban poor will be most affected by the impacts of the pandemic. In many parts of the world, food supply has become the most urgent need for people in cities. When the COVID-19 related restrictions were in place in Nairobi, 70% of the urban poor ate less, and more than three quarters incurred higher expenses. One reason why the pandemic has had such a severe impact on food access in cities is that incomes are lower in the informal sector, where the majority of the urban poor are employed, though increased food prices due to reduced supply and the suspension of school meals have also played a role.
Unsurprisingly, health services are also under strain in informal settlements. Many residents lack access to healthcare, which is particularly alarming as bad health is the predominant reason why city dwellers slip into chronic poverty. Even when medical treatment is available, the costs are too high for many, and what health services are provided are often considered to be of doubtful quality. Given that food insecurity and unequal access to health care were already among the most pressing needs for urban dwellers before the pandemic, the impacts of COVID-19 on urban economies in the Global South could be enormous.
The situation of the urban poor worsens even more if one looks at the possible climate impacts on informal settlements, whose residents are more exposed to the impacts of climate change, such as flooding, storms and sea-level rise, as they often live in high-risk areas. At the same time, measures to contain the spread of the pandemic can hamper disaster responses. For example, when Cyclone Amphan hit South Asia in May 2020, authorities were caught in the dilemma of having to decide whether to prioritise evacuation over distancing, i.e. either risking further spreading the virus in overcrowded shelters or exposing residents to the impacts of the cyclone in their homes. Similarly, in South Africa, social distancing in informal settlements, which was already hard to implement before the pandemic, was further challenged by extremely heavy floods in spring 2020.
Government-imposed lockdowns and other measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 not only undermine already strained livelihoods but can also exacerbate prevalent mistrust towards public institutions and frustration with authorities. This may spur violence, as in the case of Nepal, where predominantly urban youths expressed their anger over the government’s efforts to contain COVID-19 in the country.
Similar risks exist with regard to access to essential services and supplies such as food and water. For example, insufficient access to food during the pandemic has fuelled violence in the suburbs of the Chilean capital Santiago, where violent protests occurred in recent months, building on the civil unrest over living conditions and government measures that already existed before the outbreak of the pandemic.
Past experiences from disaster response also show that failed government actions can trigger public unrest in the aftermath of natural disasters. For example when Taifun Haiyan hit the Philippines in 2013, violent unrest erupted over the government’s inefficient reconstruction efforts. These trends could be exacerbated by the effects of climate change on food prices, which has already proven to be a factor for violence in urban settings, e.g. during the Arab Spring or in Sudan.
If unaddressed, the effects of the pandemic may provide further opportunities for illegal groups and activities to flourish. Criminal gangs were already able to fill the void left by un-responsive governments during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, organised criminal groups in the favelas of Brazil introduced price regulations for in-demand products, such as sanitiser or facemasks, interfering with traditional areas of government policies. In Mexico, several drug trafficking cartels performed government functions as they imposed curfews, distributed aid to poor neighbourhoods – with their respective groups’ logos on the aid packages – and provided financial assistance to businesses in need.
In the process, these illicit groups not only made profits but gained reputation and trust among the population. The consequences of the pandemic and lockdown measures, such as soaring unemployment rates and closed schools in combination with the threats posed by climate change, can provide fertile recruiting ground for illicit organisations that may benefit from the newly gained trust during the pandemic.
Although urban areas are most affected by the spread of COVID-19, and the pandemic holds multiple security risks for urban dwellers, the current situation also offers an opportunity to transform cities into healthier and more resilient spaces. To this end, governments, working together with local authorities and other relevant stakeholders, should:
[This article was originally published by the Torino World Affairs Institute (T.wai).]
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