For the first time in the survey’s 10-year outlook, the top five global risks in terms of likelihood are all environmental. They are: extreme weather events, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, major natural disasters, major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and human-made environmental damage and disasters.
The Global Risks Report 2020 has been published in advance of the 50th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF). According to a press release by the WEF, “for the first time in the survey’s 10-year outlook, the top five global risks in terms of likelihood are all environmental.” The Global Risks Report informs the WEF’s multi-stakeholder initiatives throughout the year.
The report derives from the results of an annual ‘Global Risks Perception Survey’ that is sent to approximately 800 members of the WEF community. Respondents are asked to assess: (1) the likelihood of a global risk occurring over the course of the next decade, and (2) the severity of its impact at a global level if it were to occur.
The report frames the global economy as facing increased risk of stagnation, rapid climate change, a “fragmented cyberspace that threatens the full potential of next-generation technologies,” and global protests against political and economic conditions and systems that worsen inequality.
The top five risks by likelihood over the next 10 years include: extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.); failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms); major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; and human-made environmental damage and disasters.
The top five risks by severity of impact over the next decade are: failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; weapons of mass destruction; major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.); and water crises.
Respondents also assessed the interconnections between pairs of global risks. The topmost strongly connected global risks include: extreme weather events and failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; large-scale cyberattacks and the breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks; high structural unemployment or underemployment and adverse consequences of technological advances; major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse and failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; and food crises and extreme weather events.
The World Economic Forum will convene from 21-24 January in Davos, Switzerland under the theme, ‘A Cohesive and Sustainable World.’ The meeting aims to “shape global, regional and industry agendas at the beginning of each year.” The Four global issues that will feature prominently on the agenda include environmental challenges, sustainable business; technologies driving the Fourth Industrial Revolution; and demographic, social and technological trends reshaping education, employment and entrepreneurship.
IISD
EU lawmakers support 55% emission cuts as IPCC spectre lurks
Members of the European Parliament voted on Wednesday (10 October) in favour of increasing the EU’s Paris Agreement emissions pledge by 2020. They also urged the European Commission to make sure its long-term climate strategy models net-zero emissions for 2050 “at the latest”.
The Double Burden of Climate Exposure and State Fragility
A new USAID report focuses on the intersection of climate exposure and state fragility worldwide. It finds that the factors that make a country vulberable to large-scale conflict are similar to those that make it vulnerable to climate change. The report thus offers a way for global audiences with an interest in climate and security to identify places of high concern.
What difference does it make?
A big difference. That was the conclusion the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came to when it assessed the differences between a 1.5°C and a 2°C warmer world in a landmark special report published in early October. The leading scientific authority on climate change found that the world is likely to pass the 1.5 °C mark between 2030 and 2052 if current emission trends are not interrupted.
Pakistan’s unprecedented climate shocks make it clear: regional cooperation for managing shared waters is desperately needed. To halt the increasing impacts on agriculture and livelihoods that cripple the country’s economy, diplomacy is of paramount importance. In our interview, Moeen Khan explains how territorial and ethnic tensions with India hinder much-needed transboundary solutions – and how the international community can help.