Climate change is a real and pressing issue affecting the Sahel and Maghreb regions of North and West Africa today. Weather pattern changes are causing desertification and prolonged drought in these regions. The Gulf of Guinea experienced an increase in water temperatures over recent decades, shifting rainclouds in the Sahel farther south. Consequently, between 1996 and 2006, Algeria lost 13,000 km2 of its land to desertification, while Nigeria lost 3,500 km2.
While a characteristic of the Sahel region is variable precipitation, in the second half of the 20th century, the region has experienced a dramatic decrease in average rainfall, as much as a 50% reduction. In addition, droughts occur now in two out of five years, which causes harvests to be highly uncertain.
Detrimental effects from climate change further exacerbate the growing strife and instability of the region, acting as a “threat multiplier.” These effects include increased water scarcity, lack of food security, and increased desertification. These may significantly increase instability in weak or failing states by overstretching governments’ capacities.
Over the next twenty to thirty years, these conditions will fuel the growing threat of Islamic radicalization in the Sahel and Maghreb areas of Africa. This will constitute one of the most important dangers posed to both American and global security.
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2019 has only just begun, but it is already hard to imagine that there will be other extreme weather events with disastrous consequences such as cyclone Idai happening again this year. In all likelihood, such events will continue to occur as 2019 rolls on. Idai is, once more, proof of how devastating and toxic the mix of climate change, extreme weather events and poverty can be: Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe – countries that rank low in human development but contribute very little to global greenhouse gas emissions – suffer from some of the worst impacts of climate change.
adelphi has relaunched its exhibition Environment, Conflict and Cooperation (ECC) Exhibition to illustrate how unprecedented environmental changes interact with social, political, and economic risks to exacerbate conflict. We invite you to explore our online exhibition and to learn more about urgent issues of our time: climate, energy, migration, extractives, food and water.
Climate security risks are, by all interpretations, a global threat. But when it comes to setting a political climate security agenda, a handful of countries stand out. In an interview with Climate Diplomacy, Michaela Spaeth, Director for Energy and Climate Policy at the German Federal Foreign Office, highlights some of Germany’s goals and challenges in forwarding the issue during its 2019-20 membership in the UN Security Council.
The Planetary Security Conference 2019, which concluded on 20 February, saw a number of workshops being held on the Sahel region and specifically Mali, one of the Conference’s three spotlight regions. These workshops examined the region’s climate-water-security risks as well as the #doable actions and solutions to address these issues.