The spiritual grandchild of the Rio Earth Summit agreement of 23 years ago, the universal climate agreement (UCA), is the world's best chance to limit global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius. The universal hope is that it will be adopted at the global climate change summit in Paris, France, in December 2015. The UCA is important because it will record different countries’ commitments to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, and, this time around, developing countries, too, will make commitments to reduce their emissions—and they are looking for how to fund the actions they will need to take.
How much money is needed by developing countries? Estimates are around US$ 450 billion per year from 2020 on: US$ 350 billion for reduced emissions and US$ 100 billion for adapting to the impacts of climate change. Some of this money will be provided by countries themselves. But to reach their emission reduction targets, a significant fraction will also need to come from developed countries in the form of official climate finance (OCF). These numbers may sound overwhelming, but context is paramount—they should be compared to net inflows of debt and equity into developing countries, which are estimated to be above US$ 1.2 trillion per year.
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Several climate security studies have assessed the risks of climate change to security and examined potential foreign policy responses, but the connection between climate change and foreign policy remains underexplored. The new Climate Diplomacy Report of the German Foreign Office takes up the challenge.
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are currently engaged in vital talks over the dispute relating to the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. While non-African actors are increasingly present in the negotiations, the African Union (AU) is playing a marginal role.
Climate change was more central than ever at this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC), the leading international forum for senior military, security and foreign policy leaders. The release of the inaugural “World Climate and Security Report 2020” (WCSR 2020) by the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) should help policymakers take effective action.
The mission of the Munich Security Conference is to “address the world’s most pressing security concerns”. These days, that means climate security: climate change is the ultimate threat multiplier, and anyone discussing food security, political instability, migration, or competition over resources should be aware of the climate change pressures that are so often at the root of security problems.