The spiritual grandchild of the Rio Earth Summit agreement of 23 years ago, the universal climate agreement (UCA), is the world's best chance to limit global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius. The universal hope is that it will be adopted at the global climate change summit in Paris, France, in December 2015. The UCA is important because it will record different countries’ commitments to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, and, this time around, developing countries, too, will make commitments to reduce their emissions—and they are looking for how to fund the actions they will need to take.
How much money is needed by developing countries? Estimates are around US$ 450 billion per year from 2020 on: US$ 350 billion for reduced emissions and US$ 100 billion for adapting to the impacts of climate change. Some of this money will be provided by countries themselves. But to reach their emission reduction targets, a significant fraction will also need to come from developed countries in the form of official climate finance (OCF). These numbers may sound overwhelming, but context is paramount—they should be compared to net inflows of debt and equity into developing countries, which are estimated to be above US$ 1.2 trillion per year.
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The latest climate talks unravelled when parties failed to reach consensus on the global carbon market mandated by the Paris Agreement. The carbon market controversy emerged amidst new tensions between a growing grassroots climate movement and the climate sceptic agenda of populist leaders. The ball is now in the court of the climate laggards, but they can only halt global climate action for so long.
This year’s annual UN climate conference, COP25 in Madrid, became the longest on record when it concluded after lunch on Sunday, following more than two weeks of fraught negotiations. It had been scheduled to wrap up on Friday.
On 29 November in Rabat, adelphi partnered with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) to hold a regional dialogue on climate change and fragility risks in North Africa and the Sahel.
As the second week of COP25 begins in Madrid, it is time to stress once more the importance of building momentum for adaptation. There is obviously a need for adaptation planning, implementation and financing. However, so far only seventeen countries have presented National Adaptation Plans (NAP) - despite international partners providing important support.