Commitments already made by world governments to cut carbon emissions aren’t enough to keep global warming below the crucial 2C target – but a strong deal is still possible in Paris, says economist.
The commitments made by world governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the next 15 years are not sufficient to stave off the worst effects of climate change, a new analysis by Lord Stern has found.
The study by the author of an influential report on the economics of climate change found that countries’ pledges ahead of a crunch UN climate summit in Paris this December would not keep warming below 2C, the level that previous UN negotiations have agreed on.
But Stern said he was still optimistic that a good deal could be reached in Paris.
“There is strong action coming through in many parts of the world,” he said, pointing to the rising use of renewable energy and efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions in countries from Latin America to Asia.
“It is very important to recognise that there is still time before Paris [to strengthen a potential agreement].”
The study looks at plans so far submitted to the UN , and the commitments published by other governments but not yet formally submitted.
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The latest climate talks unravelled when parties failed to reach consensus on the global carbon market mandated by the Paris Agreement. The carbon market controversy emerged amidst new tensions between a growing grassroots climate movement and the climate sceptic agenda of populist leaders. The ball is now in the court of the climate laggards, but they can only halt global climate action for so long.
This year’s annual UN climate conference, COP25 in Madrid, became the longest on record when it concluded after lunch on Sunday, following more than two weeks of fraught negotiations. It had been scheduled to wrap up on Friday.
On 29 November in Rabat, adelphi partnered with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) to hold a regional dialogue on climate change and fragility risks in North Africa and the Sahel.
As the second week of COP25 begins in Madrid, it is time to stress once more the importance of building momentum for adaptation. There is obviously a need for adaptation planning, implementation and financing. However, so far only seventeen countries have presented National Adaptation Plans (NAP) - despite international partners providing important support.