No-one could have predicted in 2008 that seven years later Islamic State militants would be terrorising eastern Syria and destroying ancient shrines. Nor could they have foreseen how many Syrians would drown in the Mediterranean as they made a desperate bid for Europe.
But as the country entered its third year of drought – a symptom of climate change – the warning signs for conflict were mounting up. Cases like this are why “climate fragility” should be made a foreign policy priority, according to an in-depth report commissioned by the G7. UK foreign minister Baroness Anelay picks on Syria as an example of the importance of global warming to her brief.
Speaking at the report’s London launch, she says: “Climate change is not only a threat to the environment but also to our global security, to poverty eradication and economic prosperity. “That therefore makes it a top priority not only for environment ministers but foreign ministers too.”
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Although water is an essential input for agriculture and industrial production, it is also scarce in many regions. When it crosses international borders via shared rivers, lakes and aquifers, it can become a source of conflict and contention. Yet while water can be a source of instability, especially in the face of climate change, it can also be a source or catalyst for cooperation and even peace.
The Gulf Cooperation Council’s grid operator is studying the feasibility of a cable to Ethiopia, which would run through currently war-torn Yemen.
Small Island States will be facing dramatically higher adaptation costs to build resilience against the kind of impacts the IPCC projects in its most recent Special Report. Thoriq Imbrahim, former Environment and Energy Minister of the Maldives, urges the international community to attend to the political demands of countries particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change and also confront loss and damage with renewed urgency.
Three years after the talks that delivered the Paris Agreement, the world is gathering in Poland to take stock of the progress that has been made and to raise its ambitions. But as new nationalist leaders take power, has the world lost its appetite for climate action?