With the European Green Deal, the European Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen has committed to accelerating decarbonisation in Europe as a major priority. The report "The Geopolitics of Decarbonization: Reshaping European Foreign Relations" shows how the EU’s external relations need to evolve to adequately reflect the political, economic and social outcomes of this process.
Coinciding with the first days the German Presidency of the European Council, on 3 July 2020 adelphi and the Institute for European Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel launched a new report “The Geopolitics of Decarbonisation: Reshaping European Foreign Relations”. This summary highlights the event's key outcomes.
The starting point for the discussion was a presentation of the report’s key findings, drawn from detailed case study analyses of six fossil fuel exporting countries, as well as its recommendations for how EU foreign policy can build fruitful external relations in a decarbonising world. The latter stress the importance of using the EU’s entire diplomatic toolbox, and highlight priorities for action in five areas: climate and energy, trade and investment, science and education, finance and development, and peace and security.
Marc Vanheukelen, Ambassador at Large for Climate Diplomacy at the European External Action Service, gave a first keynote in response to the report’s findings. His intervention emphasised how
"the fossil fuel epoch… had its supply security agenda and geopolitical map. The decarbonisation era will have its agenda and map."
He outlined a number of areas where the shift to climate neutrality would have geopolitical consequences, including the fragility it would cause in fossil fuel exporting countries, the revision of existing military strategies and alliances, new security of supply concerns related to low carbon technologies, and questions of technological dominance and cybersecurity.
Caroline Kusemko, Associate Professor in International Political Economy at the University of Warwick, complemented these thoughts with a second intervention focusing on three areas. Firstly, she emphasised how the increasing diversity of available energy sources and actors was changing the geopolitics of energy and creating new opportunities for strengthening sustainable energy transitions. Secondly, she drew on a recent paper to reflect on the implications of COVID-19 for climate mitigation. And thirdly, she called for the EU to continue to embrace a leadership role in promoting global decarbonisation – both in terms of fulfilling its ambitious targets for emissions reduction, and in sharing the substantial experience and expertise it has gathered in fostering a just transition to climate neutrality.
The event concluded with a discussion with the audience, touching on issues such as the future of hydrogen, carbon border adjustments, and the role of multilateral development banks in promoting sustainable energy transitions, as well as follow-up questions on the findings from the report.
The report “The Geopolitics of Decarbonisation: Reshaping European Foreign Relations” was produced as part of the Climate Diplomacy initiative, which is supported by grant from the German Federal Foreign Office.
Further reading
To shift humanity onto a sustainable path and secure peace, transformative change is required – globally. The UN’s 17 SDGs serve as critical guardrails. But what is the role of foreign policy in the implementation of these goals and what are the side-effects that diplomacy must be aware of? At the UN High-level Political Forum, experts analysed the geopolitical implications of the SDGs and discussed why foreign policy need to engage with them.
“Climate change is inextricably linked to some of the most pressing security challenges of our time,” said Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed, echoing many permanent and temporary members of the United Nations Security Council. This debate, brought forward under the Swedish Presidency of the Council, aimed at bringing forth the nexus between climate change and security, not only in a context-specific manner like previously acknowledged but for the globe as a whole.
Understanding climate risks is crucial to ensuring effective and sustainable conflict prevention. On 11 July, Sweden will hold the first meeting in the UN Security Council since 2011 on climate-related security risks, to better understand how climate change impacts security, and enhance UN responses across the conflict cycle.
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The European Parliament yesterday, 3 July 2018, voted for a report on EU Climate Diplomacy and emphasized the EU’s responsibility to lead on climate action as well as conflict prevention.