In the run-up to the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius on November 28th, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in an attempt to restart negotiations over the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Although the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan officially ceased over twenty years ago, current tensions between the two states serve as the main impediment to resolving various regional issues, including growing freshwater scarcity in the South Caucasus.
Pressures on water quantity and quality in the region are still moderate. However, anthropogenic and climate-induced reductions in water supply, coupled with instability within the social and economic systems, are likely to lead to a worsening of interstate relations, and could exacerbate current tensions in this volatile region.
But this reality also reveals an opportunity for conflict-resolution. Shared natural resources imply possible mutual benefits of cooperation between states. In particular, cooperation over water resources offers an opportunity for building trust.
This will not be easy. A significant lack of trust and technical know-how in the region, as well as an asymmetry in resources available for environmental protection, are main obstacles to cooperation. That is why an engaged international community, particularly the European Union (EU), will be critical.
For the complete article, please see The Center for Climate & Security.
As December’s UN climate summit in Poland rapidly approaches, it is shaping up to be a race against time to prepare the so-called Paris rulebook, which will govern how the landmark climate agreement will actually be implemented.
Members of the European Parliament voted on Wednesday (10 October) in favour of increasing the EU’s Paris Agreement emissions pledge by 2020. They also urged the European Commission to make sure its long-term climate strategy models net-zero emissions for 2050 “at the latest”.
A new USAID report focuses on the intersection of climate exposure and state fragility worldwide. It finds that the factors that make a country vulberable to large-scale conflict are similar to those that make it vulnerable to climate change. The report thus offers a way for global audiences with an interest in climate and security to identify places of high concern.
A big difference. That was the conclusion the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came to when it assessed the differences between a 1.5°C and a 2°C warmer world in a landmark special report published in early October. The leading scientific authority on climate change found that the world is likely to pass the 1.5 °C mark between 2030 and 2052 if current emission trends are not interrupted.