The International Monetary Fund is to start factoring in climate change to its macroeconomic models from next year, Climate Home has learned. That means its much-cited World Economic Outlook could expose how moves to curb greenhouse gas emissions threaten growth in oil-exporting countries, for example. The Washington DC-based IMF is the world’s leading authority on financial stability, boasting significant influence in the 188 countries it counts as members.
In May, it released a controversial study suggesting fossil fuel subsidies were worth US$5.3 trillion a year. In August, it urged Saudi Arabia to diversify its economy away from oil. Christine Lagarde, head of the organisation, has repeatedly called for carbon pricing to encourage green investment.
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The scope of national security is expanding beyond violent threats to encompass a broader array of dangers. In an article for World Politics Review, CFR's Stewart M. Patrick assesses the implications of COVID-19 and climate change for the theory and practice of national security.
Although there is no causality nor direct and automatic link between climate change and conflict, we can see that climate change can intensify conflict drivers and make it harder to find stability. The online workshop "Climate change, conflict and fragility: Increasing resilience against climate-fragility risks", organised by the European Peacebuilding Liaison Office (EPLO) and adelphi, looked into this complex relationship.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous parallels have been drawn between this health crisis and the climate crisis. Science plays an important role in advising decision makers on how to ensure sustainable crisis management and a precautionary approach to avoid harmful repercussions, particularly where we do not yet know all the consequences of our actions. [...]
Decarbonisation won’t come as fast as the pandemic. But if fossil fuel exporters are not prepared for it, they will face an enduring crisis. The EU can help.