The International Monetary Fund is to start factoring in climate change to its macroeconomic models from next year, Climate Home has learned. That means its much-cited World Economic Outlook could expose how moves to curb greenhouse gas emissions threaten growth in oil-exporting countries, for example. The Washington DC-based IMF is the world’s leading authority on financial stability, boasting significant influence in the 188 countries it counts as members.
In May, it released a controversial study suggesting fossil fuel subsidies were worth US$5.3 trillion a year. In August, it urged Saudi Arabia to diversify its economy away from oil. Christine Lagarde, head of the organisation, has repeatedly called for carbon pricing to encourage green investment.
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The European Green Deal has made the environment and climate change the focus of EU action. Indeed, climate change impacts are already increasing the pressure on states and societies; however, it is not yet clear how the EU can engage on climate security and environmental peacemaking. In this light, and in the run-up to the German EU Council Presidency, adelphi and its partners are organising a roundtable series on “Climate, environment, peace: Priorities for EU external action in the decade ahead”.
In January 2020, the German Federal Foreign Office launched Green Central Asia, a regional initiative on climate and security in Central Asia and Afghanistan. The aim of the initiative is to support a dialogue in the region on climate change and associated risks in order to foster regional integration between the six countries involved.
Climate change will shift key coordinates of foreign policy in the coming years and decades. Even now, climate policy is more than just environment policy; it has long since arrived at the centre of foreign policy. The German Foreign Office recently released a report on climate diplomacy recognizing the biggest challenges to security posed by climate change and highlighting fields of action for strengthening international climate diplomacy.
A high-level ministerial conference in Berlin is looking at the impact of climate change on regional security in Central Asia. The aim is to foster stronger regional cooperation, improve the exchange of information and form connections with academia and civil society.