
As the second week of COP25 in Madrid begins, it is time to stress once more the importance of building momentum for adaptation. At the beginning of the conference, Oxfam published a report outlining the profound impacts of extreme weather events such as flooding and cyclones: more than 20 million people are displaced each year by such events. Meanwhile, Zambia and Zimbabwe are currently facing the worst drought in a century, with tremendous impacts on the Victoria Falls. There is obviously a need for adaptation planning, implementation and financing. However, so far only seventeen countries have presented National Adaptation Plans (NAP) - despite international partners providing important support.
Whereas the international negotiations are bogged down with discussions on how to communicate adaptation activities, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has published a report that outlines in the costs of doing nothing: the bill for climate-linked disasters alone could reach $20 billion every year by 2050. At the same time, the Global Commission on Adaptation found that there are tremendous co-benefits to adaptation activities: e.g. supporting early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture, mangrove protection, and investments in resilient water resource management. Adaptation activities could generate USD 7.1 trillion in total net benefits – but an initial investment of USD 1.8 trillion is needed.
It remains enormously challenging to effectively steer financial resources to the local level, where they are most needed. This is particularly alarming because vulnerabilities to the effects of climate change are highly localised, and the greatest impacts will be seen on the local level. Nevertheless, despite their needs, local entities often lack the financial resources to plan and implement adequate adaptation measures. In a recent analysis, adelphi shed some light on promising elements of so-called elevator functions – these are specific strategies or operating principles within programmes that aim to channel funding effectively through vertical administrative levels from the international to the local level, where the money can have maximum impact. The report also found widespread agreement that the bottom-up approach to adaptation needs to involve businesses and stakeholders on the ground in emerging and developing countries. This is essential for driving climate adaptation finance as local companies and communities are directly affected by climate change. Here, innovative bottom-up adaptation financing approaches are necessary – e.g. the approach taken for Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the context of the SEED initiative.
These are only two of the many possible entry points for informing adaptation governance as well as international negotiations in Madrid and beyond, and to ensure appropriate responses to the ongoing climate emergency.
The European Green Deal has made the environment and climate change the focus of EU action. Indeed, climate change impacts are already increasing the pressure on states and societies; however, it is not yet clear how the EU can engage on climate security and environmental peacemaking. In this light, and in the run-up to the German EU Council Presidency, adelphi and its partners are organising a roundtable series on “Climate, environment, peace: Priorities for EU external action in the decade ahead”.
In January 2020, the German Federal Foreign Office launched Green Central Asia, a regional initiative on climate and security in Central Asia and Afghanistan. The aim of the initiative is to support a dialogue in the region on climate change and associated risks in order to foster regional integration between the six countries involved.
Climate change will shift key coordinates of foreign policy in the coming years and decades. Even now, climate policy is more than just environment policy; it has long since arrived at the centre of foreign policy. The German Foreign Office recently released a report on climate diplomacy recognizing the biggest challenges to security posed by climate change and highlighting fields of action for strengthening international climate diplomacy.
A high-level ministerial conference in Berlin is looking at the impact of climate change on regional security in Central Asia. The aim is to foster stronger regional cooperation, improve the exchange of information and form connections with academia and civil society.