Climate Change
Early Warning & Risk Analysis

Which dynamics will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years? And which are adequate preventive measures? Three new studies on behalf of OSCE and EEA give resoucreful insights to answer these questions.

The impacts of climate change are becoming more visible every day. It is essential to take preventive measures at an early stage to tackle the potentially negative consequences of this change. In response to these challenges, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) joined forces with the European Environment Agency (EEA) to examine the security risks of climate change.

adelphi supported this process by conducting a series of studies and numerous scenario workshops in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Western Balkans and the Southern Caucasus, organising a roundtable in Copenhagen on climate change and security in the Arctic, and carrying out a literature review on the security implications of climate change in the Southern Mediterranean region.

On behalf of the EEA, adelphi concluded this process by compiling a comprehensive report on the security implications of climate change for the OSCE regions. The study demonstrates the potentially far-reaching impacts of climate change on security and pinpoints critical uncertainties and dynamics which will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years. The current situation could either result in a vicious circle for the OSCE regions, consisting of environmental problems and economic, social and political crises, potentially leading to violent revolutions and conflicts, or prompt them to seize the opportunities presented by climate change challenges to enhance regional cooperation and integration. Taking comprehensive action at an early stage will be crucial to this process. In addition to pinpointing regional priority areas for action, the study puts forward recommendations for the OSCE and the EEA, which aim to support the states in the OSCE regions and enable them to make better preparations for these challenges at organisational level.


Ruettinger, Lukas 2013
Climate Change and Security in the OSCE Region. Scenarios for Action and Cooperation. Berlin: adelphi.

Wolters, Stephan, Dennis Taenzler and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Arctic. Scenario Workshop Report. Berlin: adelphi.

Fritzsche, Kerstin and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Southern Mediterranean. Berlin: adelphi.

Natasha Vizcarra, Global Landscapes Forum

Now in its second decade, the ambitious African Union–led restoration initiative known as the Great Green Wall has brought close to 18 million hectares of land under restoration since 2007, according to a status report unveiled by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) at a virtual meeting on Monday, 7 September.

Adaptation & Resilience
Global Issues
Anne Hammill, IISD

Though focused on climate change, National Adaptation Plans offer important assessments of the risks a country faces and can be valuable in devising comprehensive pandemic response strategies.

Global Issues
Raquel Munayer, adelphi

As part of this year’s online World Water Week at Home, adelphi and IHE Delft convened the workshop "Water diplomacy: a tool for climate action?". The workshop reflected on the role that foreign policy can play in mitigating, solving and potentially preventing conflicts over the management of transboundary water resources, especially in a changing climate.

South America
Adriana E. Abdenur, Igarapé Institute

The Cerrado, a tropical savannah region located in Central Brazil, is nearly half as large as the Amazon and a deforestation hotspot. Yet little attention is paid to this important biome. That has to change.