Climate Change
Early Warning & Risk Analysis

Which dynamics will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years? And which are adequate preventive measures? Three new studies on behalf of OSCE and EEA give resoucreful insights to answer these questions.

The impacts of climate change are becoming more visible every day. It is essential to take preventive measures at an early stage to tackle the potentially negative consequences of this change. In response to these challenges, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) joined forces with the European Environment Agency (EEA) to examine the security risks of climate change.

adelphi supported this process by conducting a series of studies and numerous scenario workshops in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Western Balkans and the Southern Caucasus, organising a roundtable in Copenhagen on climate change and security in the Arctic, and carrying out a literature review on the security implications of climate change in the Southern Mediterranean region.

On behalf of the EEA, adelphi concluded this process by compiling a comprehensive report on the security implications of climate change for the OSCE regions. The study demonstrates the potentially far-reaching impacts of climate change on security and pinpoints critical uncertainties and dynamics which will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years. The current situation could either result in a vicious circle for the OSCE regions, consisting of environmental problems and economic, social and political crises, potentially leading to violent revolutions and conflicts, or prompt them to seize the opportunities presented by climate change challenges to enhance regional cooperation and integration. Taking comprehensive action at an early stage will be crucial to this process. In addition to pinpointing regional priority areas for action, the study puts forward recommendations for the OSCE and the EEA, which aim to support the states in the OSCE regions and enable them to make better preparations for these challenges at organisational level.


Ruettinger, Lukas 2013
Climate Change and Security in the OSCE Region. Scenarios for Action and Cooperation. Berlin: adelphi.

Wolters, Stephan, Dennis Taenzler and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Arctic. Scenario Workshop Report. Berlin: adelphi.

Fritzsche, Kerstin and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Southern Mediterranean. Berlin: adelphi.

Adaptation & Resilience
Climate Change
Climate Diplomacy
Global Issues
Dennis Tänzler (adelphi)

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous parallels have been drawn between this health crisis and the climate crisis. Science plays an important role in advising decision makers on how to ensure sustainable crisis management and a precautionary approach to avoid harmful repercussions, particularly where we do not yet know all the consequences of our actions. [...]

Sustainable Transformation
Global Issues
Noah Gordon, Daria Ivleva and Emily Wright, adelphi

Decarbonisation won’t come as fast as the pandemic. But if fossil fuel exporters are not prepared for it, they will face an enduring crisis. The EU can help. 

Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Igarapé Institute

Stories of clear skies and wildlife conquering urban areas might provide much needed comfort during these uncertain times as the health crisis unfolds. But in Brazil, where climate and environmental issues already lack attention and resources, the pandemic underscores the next crisis.

Climate Diplomacy
Global Issues
Dhanasree Jayaram, MAHE

Solutions to the current COVID-19 crisis need to be aligned to those of the climate crisis for a global transformation towards more sustainability, resilience, equity, and justice. Climate diplomacy has the tools to achieve these objectives simultaneously.