Which dynamics will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years? And which are adequate preventive measures? Three new studies on behalf of OSCE and EEA give resoucreful insights to answer these questions.
The impacts of climate change are becoming more visible every day. It is essential to take preventive measures at an early stage to tackle the potentially negative consequences of this change. In response to these challenges, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) joined forces with the European Environment Agency (EEA) to examine the security risks of climate change.
adelphi supported this process by conducting a series of studies and numerous scenario workshops in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Western Balkans and the Southern Caucasus, organising a roundtable in Copenhagen on climate change and security in the Arctic, and carrying out a literature review on the security implications of climate change in the Southern Mediterranean region.
On behalf of the EEA, adelphi concluded this process by compiling a comprehensive report on the security implications of climate change for the OSCE regions. The study demonstrates the potentially far-reaching impacts of climate change on security and pinpoints critical uncertainties and dynamics which will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years. The current situation could either result in a vicious circle for the OSCE regions, consisting of environmental problems and economic, social and political crises, potentially leading to violent revolutions and conflicts, or prompt them to seize the opportunities presented by climate change challenges to enhance regional cooperation and integration. Taking comprehensive action at an early stage will be crucial to this process. In addition to pinpointing regional priority areas for action, the study puts forward recommendations for the OSCE and the EEA, which aim to support the states in the OSCE regions and enable them to make better preparations for these challenges at organisational level.
Ruettinger, Lukas 2013
Climate Change and Security in the OSCE Region. Scenarios for Action and Cooperation. Berlin: adelphi.
Wolters, Stephan, Dennis Taenzler and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Arctic. Scenario Workshop Report. Berlin: adelphi.
Fritzsche, Kerstin and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Southern Mediterranean. Berlin: adelphi.
adelphi
The European Green Deal has made the environment and climate change the focus of EU action. Indeed, climate change impacts are already increasing the pressure on states and societies; however, it is not yet clear how the EU can engage on climate security and environmental peacemaking. In this light, and in the run-up to the German EU Council Presidency, adelphi and its partners are organising a roundtable series on “Climate, environment, peace: Priorities for EU external action in the decade ahead”.
In January 2020, the German Federal Foreign Office launched Green Central Asia, a regional initiative on climate and security in Central Asia and Afghanistan. The aim of the initiative is to support a dialogue in the region on climate change and associated risks in order to foster regional integration between the six countries involved.
Climate change will shift key coordinates of foreign policy in the coming years and decades. Even now, climate policy is more than just environment policy; it has long since arrived at the centre of foreign policy. The German Foreign Office recently released a report on climate diplomacy recognizing the biggest challenges to security posed by climate change and highlighting fields of action for strengthening international climate diplomacy.
A high-level ministerial conference in Berlin is looking at the impact of climate change on regional security in Central Asia. The aim is to foster stronger regional cooperation, improve the exchange of information and form connections with academia and civil society.