Which dynamics will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years? And which are adequate preventive measures? Three new studies on behalf of OSCE and EEA give resoucreful insights to answer these questions.
The impacts of climate change are becoming more visible every day. It is essential to take preventive measures at an early stage to tackle the potentially negative consequences of this change. In response to these challenges, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) joined forces with the European Environment Agency (EEA) to examine the security risks of climate change.
adelphi supported this process by conducting a series of studies and numerous scenario workshops in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Western Balkans and the Southern Caucasus, organising a roundtable in Copenhagen on climate change and security in the Arctic, and carrying out a literature review on the security implications of climate change in the Southern Mediterranean region.
On behalf of the EEA, adelphi concluded this process by compiling a comprehensive report on the security implications of climate change for the OSCE regions. The study demonstrates the potentially far-reaching impacts of climate change on security and pinpoints critical uncertainties and dynamics which will play a key role in determining whether climate change leads to more insecurity and instability over the next 50 years. The current situation could either result in a vicious circle for the OSCE regions, consisting of environmental problems and economic, social and political crises, potentially leading to violent revolutions and conflicts, or prompt them to seize the opportunities presented by climate change challenges to enhance regional cooperation and integration. Taking comprehensive action at an early stage will be crucial to this process. In addition to pinpointing regional priority areas for action, the study puts forward recommendations for the OSCE and the EEA, which aim to support the states in the OSCE regions and enable them to make better preparations for these challenges at organisational level.
Ruettinger, Lukas 2013
Climate Change and Security in the OSCE Region. Scenarios for Action and Cooperation. Berlin: adelphi.
Wolters, Stephan, Dennis Taenzler and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Arctic. Scenario Workshop Report. Berlin: adelphi.
Fritzsche, Kerstin and Lukas Ruettinger 2013
Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Southern Mediterranean. Berlin: adelphi.
adelphi
At a briefing ahead of the COP25, foreign minister Heiko Maas called for higher ambition for the European Union, which should act as a role-model to encourage other states to boost their commitments to climate action. He further reiterated the importance of supporting multilateralism and an international climate regime that is able to withstand setbacks, such as the US withdrawal of the Paris Agreement.
A Toolkit for Addressing Climate Fragility Risks
Climate change is increasingly challenging global security and undermining peacebuilding efforts. UN Environment and the European Union have joined forces to address these challenges. With the support of adelphi, they have developed a toolkit on ‘Addressing climate-fragility risks’. This toolkit facilitates the development and implementation of strategies, policies, and projects that seek to build resilience by linking climate change adaptation, peacebuilding, and sustainable livelihoods, focusing on the pilot countries Sudan and Nepal.
Nobody needs to be convinced that climate change affects our very existence and security. However, experts are interested to know how climate change affects security at a global level and what the EU can do in that regard. This was the main aim of the European Security and Defence College (ESDC) Climate Change and Security Course co-organised by the French Institute for Higher National Defence Studies (IHEDN) and adelphi, as part of the Climate Diplomacy initiative supported by the German Federal Foreign Office, which took place in Brussels from 21 to 23 October 2019.
Shoring up Stability in Niger
The new study Shoring up Stability demonstrates, for the first time, how climate change interacts with conflict and exacerbates the humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad region. To launch the report and discuss its findings with local policy-makers, experts and practitioners, the German Embassy in Niger, adelphi and CNESS co-organised a launch event on 24 October in Niamey. Insights from Niger point to the importance of investing in governance rather than technical fixes.