Climate Diplomacy
Global Issues
Aline Robert, Euractiv
Capitol building, Washington, D.C. | © Art Bromage/Pixabay

Even as the US officially pulled out of the Paris Agreement earlier this week, it might be too soon to lose hope on the country's long-term commitments to climate action. If a Democrat wins the upcoming presidential elections, which are set for November 2020, a reaccession process could begin shortly after the withdrawal is complete. In the meantime, however, the effect on trade policy could be significant.

US President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday (4 November) that he would trigger the process needed to withdraw America from the Paris Agreement, the earliest possible date under the landmark accord’s legal provisions. The current timetable means that the US will terminate its involvement the day after 2020’s presidential election on 4 November. If a Democrat is elected, “they could technically relaunch accession to the Paris Agreement as soon as they come to power in January”, confirmed Paul Watkinson, chairman of the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice.

The US climate negotiating team remains part of the negotiations until then and will participate in the COP25 discussions in Madrid, which they have never previously blocked.“It is a technical team that’s very concerned about respecting the framework of the Paris Agreement, which facilitates a possible US return,” Watkinson stressed. Among the US priorities, any reference to loss and damage should avoid being introduced, as this would compromise American participation in the future.

A commercial tool as reinforcement?

If Trump is re-elected, it will be business as usual. Parties will meet in November 2020 in Glasgow to announce their new commitments but the pressure will be reduced. With this in mind, the EU has tried to work with the biggest carbon emitter, China, but also with other US actors, like California.

The debate on the use of other tools is also progressing. With trade issues at the forefront, the US could be the first in the crosshairs of a Paris-Berlin-backed idea, supported by the next Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. Both countries are in favour of a carbon border tax, which could be imposed on the least environmentally sensitive countries. “The fact is that we could have our first climate dispute with the US, and I don’t think that it’s desirable for anyone,” Spain’s environment chief, Teresa Ribera, told the New York Times. Spain took over COP25 hosting duties after Chile pulled out.

At commercial level, tensions rose between the two blocks thanks to a tax imposed by the US on hundreds of mainly European agri-food products. The US is mainly worrying German car manufacturers though, threatening them with extra taxes. Every year, the EU exports nearly $60 billion worth of cars to the US. “It is the ultimate weapon, so if the EU pretends to impose a carbon tax on US products, they will roll it out. But it is unlikely that the EU will shoot first,” a source from the European institutions said.

“It is the ultimate weapon, so if the EU pretends to impose a carbon tax on US products, they will roll it out. But it is unlikely that the EU will shoot first,” a source from the European institutions said. The irony of this trade war is that it could ultimately be quite beneficial to the climate cause, as Germany would produce fewer large cars, due to lack of market, and the US, which exports mainly to Europe,  would be forced to slow down its carbon-heavy exports.

[This article originally appeared on]


Sub-Saharan Africa
Meressa K. Dessu, Dawit Yohannes and Roba D. Sharamo , ISS Today

Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are currently engaged in vital talks over the dispute relating to the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. While non-African actors are increasingly present in the negotiations, the African Union (AU) is playing a marginal role.

Climate Change
Sub-Saharan Africa
Global Issues
Bastien Alex, IRIS

Climate change was more central than ever at this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC), the leading international forum for senior military, security and foreign policy leaders. The release of the inaugural “World Climate and Security Report 2020” (WCSR 2020) by the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) should help policymakers take effective action.  

Land & Food
Global Issues

The mission of the Munich Security Conference is to “address the world’s most pressing security concerns”. These days, that means climate security: climate change is the ultimate threat multiplier, and anyone discussing food security, political instability, migration, or competition over resources should be aware of the climate change pressures that are so often at the root of security problems.

Climate Change
Environment & Migration
Global Issues
Stella Schaller and Lukas Rüttinger, adelphi

The European Green Deal has made the environment and climate change the focus of EU action. Indeed, climate change impacts are already increasing the pressure on states and societies; however, it is not yet clear how the EU can engage on climate security and environmental peacemaking. In this light, and in the run-up to the German EU Council Presidency, adelphi and its partners are organising a roundtable series on “Climate, environment, peace: Priorities for EU external action in the decade ahead”.