Despite the recent China-US climate pledge some hard choices and compromises will be needed before a wide-ranging deal can be agreed at the UN summit in Paris in 2015.
Why is everyone talking about Paris 2015?
Countries have committed to sign a new agreement in Paris next year, pledging climate action beyond 2020. This is the first major test of the world’s willingness to tackle climate change since Copenhagen five years ago, where hopes of a comprehensive treaty to curb greenhouse gas emissions were dashed. The stakes are high, after the UN science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said earlier this month that rising annual greenhouse gas emissions were impacting the climate now; posed grave risks this century; and must fall in the 2020s to avoid the worst effects. Other experts, including the International Energy Agency and the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, have warned that the timing is critical. A rapidly-urbanising developing world is making choices that will determine either low-carbon development or lock them into highly carbon-intensive growth in the long term.
What’s on the agenda?
Climate negotiations are fraught because they cover such a range of issues, affecting daily life in almost every country of the world. The two big items on the agenda are, first, to cut greenhouse gas emissions and so limit climate change, called mitigation, and, second, to prepare for climate change that is already happening or on its way, called adaptation. Mitigation is about changing how the world generates its energy, shifting away from unabated fossil fuels. Adaptation is about making agriculture and infrastructure including cities, ports, power plants and roads more resilient to weather extremes and rising sea levels. As with any international cooperation, a climate agreement must achieve trust, and ensure clear benefits for everyone. Developing countries are responsible for most growth in greenhouse-gas emissions today, but their populations also have much less lavish lifestyles. For poorer countries, the only way to square this circle is for rich countries to provide cash to help them cut emissions and prepare for the impacts of a changing climate.
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As December’s UN climate summit in Poland rapidly approaches, it is shaping up to be a race against time to prepare the so-called Paris rulebook, which will govern how the landmark climate agreement will actually be implemented.
Members of the European Parliament voted on Wednesday (10 October) in favour of increasing the EU’s Paris Agreement emissions pledge by 2020. They also urged the European Commission to make sure its long-term climate strategy models net-zero emissions for 2050 “at the latest”.
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A big difference. That was the conclusion the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came to when it assessed the differences between a 1.5°C and a 2°C warmer world in a landmark special report published in early October. The leading scientific authority on climate change found that the world is likely to pass the 1.5 °C mark between 2030 and 2052 if current emission trends are not interrupted.