Over the past ten years, both our understanding and awareness of the links between climate change and security have increased tremendously. Today the UN, the EU, the G7 and an increasing number of states have classified climate change as a threat to global and/or national security. However, the links between climate change, conflict and fragility are not simple and linear. The increasing impacts of climate change do not automatically lead to more fragility and conflict. Rather, climate change acts as a threat multiplier.

Water is a unique resource because of its multiple uses and key role for any economic development. In many shared river basins, water resources availability is becoming precarious, thereby threatening food security and fundamental prerequisites for development such as energy security. This paper analyses and summarizes several years of experience in German water diplomacy and develops a conceptual frame for designing strategies and narratives for preventive water diplomacy action.

This briefing paper, in particular, starts by outlining some of the most important climate-fragility risks in Asia. Against this backdrop, the results of an online survey of stakeholders in Asia are presented to provide some understanding and a snapshot of how these stakeholders perceive and understand climate-fragility risks. Subsequently, the paper presents a Climate-Fragility Risk Index as a means of comprehensively presenting various climate-fragility risk indicators that help compare countries and understand factors behind their fragility state.