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The Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) released its inaugural “World Climate and Security Report 2020” at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), the annual and influential gathering of senior international security and military leaders.
This report assesses how peacebuilding programming can produce adaptation benefits, so that interventions simultaneously contribute to reduced intercommunal conflict and strengthened resilience to shocks. It draws on the evaluations of programs that included peacebuilding and climate change adaptation to synthesize lessons learned, develop and test a theory of change, and offer recommendations integrating approaches that consider and address compound climate-fragility risks.
Climate change is not only one of the greatest global challenges, but also gives the German Federal Foreign Office the opportunity in the area of foreign policy to support other countries and international organisations in dealing with the impact of climate change and in the transformation towards a climate-neutral economy.
Evidence from existing programs shows that climate change adaptation interventions can contribute to peacebuilding, and peacebuilding can have significant adaptation benefits.
This Research Paper takes stock of what we currently know about the links between climate change, fragility and conflict, summarizing evidence from research and practice over the last 25 years.
Africa in general, and the Sahel in particular, is often identified as the region where climate change is most likely to undermine security and trigger violent conflict. This is a function of the region’s history of violent conflict and its perceived vulnerability to climate change.
South Asia is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. Many countries in the region lack the resources and capacities needed to cope with the worsening impacts of climate change. At the same time, climate change is increasingly interacting with socio-economic, demographic and political factors to exacerbate fragility risks.
Climate change is the single greatest threat to the livelihood, security and well-being of Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The threat is increasing at a time when the region is already facing complex geopolitical dynamics and multifaceted security risks.
Ethiopia is a key security player in the Horn of Africa: while the country can act as an important catalyst for peace, it can also be a significant source of instability if conflict risks and climate resiliency are not managed proactively.
For the past four decades, Afghanistan has suffered from the devastating impacts of constant armed conflict. Conflicts have increased Afghanistan’s already high vulnerability to climate change, the impacts of which may, in turn, help to create the conditions for continued violence.