This Research Paper takes stock of what we currently know about the links between climate change, fragility and conflict, summarizing evidence from research and practice over the last 25 years. It is based on a review of more than 80 quantitative and qualitative peer-reviewed research articles and grey literature from development organisations and agencies.
Research on compound climate-fragility and conflict risks has developed rapidly over the past two decades, reflecting the growing urgency of the topic. Going beyond establishing a statistical, direct link, qualitative research is now demonstrating the complex relationship between climate change impacts and conflict through a variety of pathways. Evidence from programming also points to the importance of identifying and focusing on how climate change impacts such as increasing temperatures, drought, sea level rise, and more frequent and more intense extreme weather events are creating more volatile food prices, increasing competition for natural resources and making livelihoods less secure. This can contribute to more conflict and fragility, in particular when interacting with other well-established conflict drivers such as inequality and marginalisation.
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