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Climate change is the ultimate threat multiplier. It will aggravate fragility, contribute to social upheaval and even violent conflicts. The problem is the seven compound risks that emerge when the impacts of climate change interact with problems that many weak states are already facing. Single-sector interventions alone will not suffice to deal with the systemic nature of compound climate-fragility risks.
In his dissertation, Tyler H. Lippert of the Pardee RAND Graduate School explains how the transboundary security impacts of climate change will both challenge and elevate the role of international multilateral institutions like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
This briefing paper, in particular, starts by outlining some of the most important climate-fragility risks in Asia. Against this backdrop, the results of an online survey of stakeholders in Asia are presented to provide some understanding and a snapshot of how these stakeholders perceive and understand climate-fragility risks. Subsequently, the paper presents a Climate-Fragility Risk Index as a means of comprehensively presenting various climate-fragility risk indicators that help compare countries and understand factors behind their fragility state.
This paper focuses on the foreign policy implications of climate-fragility risks for Japan.
Human security will be progressively threatened by climate change, consequently development cooperation agencies such as JICA need to adopt approaches to strengthen resilience to climate-fragility risks. Currently, JICA’s approaches to climate change adaptation and peacebuilding are not connected enough. There is a need for integrating assessments of climate risk and peacebuilding impacts as well as science, engineering and socio-economic approaches.
This paper provides some initial reflections on climate-fragility risks for Japan. To complement this analysis, the paper also presents findings from a perception survey on climate-fragility risk conducted among Japanese professionals and practitioners outlining observations regarding the level of awareness around climate-fragility risks and the efficacy of policies to address climate-fragility risks.
The publication is also available in Japanese:
This report takes stock of key developments since the publishing of the independent report A New Climate For Peace commissioned by G7 members. It provides a concise risk horizon scan, and an overview and assessment of key policy developments in 2015 and 2016 that are of relevance for addressing climate-fragility risks and fostering the global resilience agenda.
[This article originally appeared on New Security Beat, the blog of The Wilson Center's Environment Change and Security Program]
The GCSP’s new strategic security brief “Water Security, Conflict and Cooperation” sheds light on rising water stress, the conflict risks, and on potential ways to improve cooperation across borders and manage water sustainably.