Climate change is the single greatest threat to the livelihood, security and well-being of Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The threat is increasing at a time when the region is already facing complex geopolitical dynamics and multifaceted security risks.

For the past four decades, Afghanistan has suffered from the devastating impacts of constant armed conflict. Conflicts have increased Afghanistan’s already high vulnerability to climate change, the impacts of which may, in turn, help to create the conditions for continued violence.

Based on the findings from the report "Geopolitics of Decarbonisation" this policy brief focuses on six fossil-fuel exporting countries – Azerbaijan, Canada, Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria and Qatar – where fossil fuels have played an important role in external relations with the EU and analyses how they may be affected by the decarbonisation of Europe.

With the rapid rate of climate change and its likely implications for global security, the current world order will have to adapt – and adapt quickly. The difference between today and major global disruptions of the past is that though the risks are unprecedented, our foresight is unprecedented as well. This lays the foundation for a Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent (R2P2), a framework for managing the climate-security risks, which this report seeks to address.